The Iran nuclear crisis: Withdrawal of US from the agreement and viable outcomes

The decision of U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement and to reimpose sanctions jeopardizes the landmark arms-control agreement, under which Iran dismantled most of its nuclear program, and consequently the international inspectors gained extensive access to monitor its compliance. The agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (a.k.a. JCPOA), has been in difficulty since Trump’s election, and the resulting climax of uncertainty ‘spooked’ many larger firms from doing business in Iran, diminishing the economic incentives, which drew Iran to the agreement in the first place. While Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and the agreements’ European signatories will now try to reclaim it, it is clearly uncertain whether they can overcome the pressure of sanctions from the United States.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has certified for about 11 times, that the Iran government is complying with its end of the deal. However, President Trump seemed to disagree, because he thinks that the Iranians simply can’t be ‘trusted’. He thinks, that the deal is not ‘strict’ enough, and Iran isn’t abiding by the spirit of the deal, because they’re illegally doing activities, like developing middle-range as well as long-range missiles.

The Iranian lawmakers had nothing but one reaction-outright fury, to the United States’ decision to walk away from the 2015 nuclear agreement. Inside the parliament, they continued their usual proclaim; ‘Death to America’. Trump replied ‘’I would advise the Iranian government not to start their nuclear program, very strongly. If they do, there will be ‘very severe consequences’’.

What exactly does president Trump do? He quits the deal and says “We are going to make a new and long-lasting deal: One that benefits all of Iran, and also the Iranian people”.
Trump now wishes to visit North Korea to strike a deal. But here’s the most vital scenario: If you’re in the North Korean government, and you just observed what happened to the Iran deal, why would you believe, that if you struck a meaningful deal with President Donald Trump, the next US President would continue to stick to it? You’ve just seen, literally, the United States tear up the previous deal they’d signed with the country to give up its nuclear program; and that’s why Trump’s decision to plow the Iran deal is so dangerous.

Europe believes that the deal works. European companies are doing business with Iran. Thus, this isn’t just a blow diplomatically, rather, it’s also a blow financially to many of its ally countries of the world. With the withdrawal of US from the deal ‘done and dusted’, Europe should now develop a ‘plan B’ to keep the Iranian party to the deal, regardless of what the U.S. just did. This plan should include ‘short-term’ and ‘medium-term’ measures to build trade with Iran, contingent upon verification of continued Iranian compliance with the deal and additional re-forms.