The Korean alliance: deciphering the motives of North Korea

In 2017, North Korea went on to a missile launch bonanza; first into the Sea of Japan in February, then its first ever nuclear ICBM on July 4^th (Happy Birthday America!) and eighteen other missile tests, plus a cyber attack on 150 countries, disrupting everything-from banks to hospitals. According to North Korean media, Americans active in internet now have extreme nuclear-phobia. Kim Jong Un ’s threats of wars weren’t new, but this time they were echoed by the US on twitter (which seemed to be a bad way to reach someone in North Korea). But tensions were at an arguably all-time high. And afterwards, something changes out of nowhere. Kim Jong Un announced that he would send two athletes to the 2018 Olympics with South Korea under a unified flag. His sister and an entourage of suspiciously enthusiastic fans also travelled to the south. Missile Testing suddenly stopped, and Kim even met with the US Secretary of State. He also left the country for the first time as supreme leader to visit Xi Jinping in China. And then the biggest news yet. Both the North and South held an inter-Korean summit, eventually Kim even hugged the South Korean President and stepped into the South Korean soil, breaking years of tradition.

This definitely sounds like a story from the onion. It’s a total 180-degree turnover, from a hot-headed war-maniac to a peace-loving patriot. For many, this is completely bizarre, for others it’s the obvious result of successful foreign policy. But what looks like desperation or backpedaling or even foolishness is really just the continuation of a long-standing very rational calculated survival strategy with a twist.     

So, what exactly is going on, and how will it end? Intimidating a superpower like the US is pretty hard. If the North had around six hundred billion dollars to rival the US military, they wouldn’t need to scare the US. In turn, they instead skipped straight to nuclear weapons. A single nuke is the ultimate shield against war and uproar, which also makes it the perfect negotiating tool. The thought of denuclearizing North Korea is so attractive that the world would do the slightest chance to getting it done. 

North Korea agreed to abandon their nuclear program in 2005. They got what they wanted, and eventually broke their promise. But this time, it’s a bit different. Their nuclear program has been building up for almost 40 years to one goal-the ability to reach the US mainland. Until this point, there was no realistic chance of giving up the program. It’s their one and only deterrent. On November 28^th, they tested the Hwasong-15, proving that they could reach anywhere in America, and two months later they joined the Olympics and turned on their ‘charm mode’. The timing is no coincidence. They accomplished their goal; No need for missile testing; it’s time to ‘cash in’ to get all they can from halting the tests while keeping (rather hiding) the ability to target the US. They couldn’t have scheduled it any better. On the contrary, Xi Jinping was probably pressuring them to relax, and tensions were extremely high with the US. The administration really wants to show its strategy worked, giving Kim enormous negotiating leverage.

It’s possible, that the talks will fail or succeed with flying colors. But here’s the rough predictions: Kim will excite the world with concessions, but most will be symbolic ones and no concrete promises. He’ll agree to stop nuclear development, which they no longer require, in exchange for American military concessions that also benefit China, who would in turn prefer the US to back out of Asia. Further domestic change or reunification will occur in North Korea. American and South Korean politicians would declare huge success. But in truth, the winner would be North Korea, who will have its security guaranteed, plus economic benefits.